Deflation Probability Measure Ticked Up

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012–17 period rose from 9 percent on November 14 to 11 percent on November 20. The deflation probability for the 2011–16 period ticked up from 9 percent on November 14 to 10 percent on November 20.

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Original Post: http://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/dp/

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