Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012-17 period ticked up from 12 percent on October 17 to 13 percent to October 24. This probability has been virtually flat over the past five weeks. The deflation probability for the 2011-16 period was 9 percent on October 24, down slightly from 10 percent on October 17.