Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
(TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to
measure probabilities of a net decline in the
consumer price index over the five-year period
starting in early 2011 or the five-year period
starting in early 2012. One measure of the
probability of deflation for the 2012-17 period
was 11 percent on May 16, the same as a week
earlier. The deflation probability for the 2011-
16 period also remained at 11 percent.